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Showing posts with label future. Show all posts
Showing posts with label future. Show all posts

2011-10-26

Reaching the peak of the world population

An intersection in Tokyo (7.3.2009)
An intersection in Tokyo, the biggest metropole in the world (7.3.2009).
The world population is about to reach the 7 billion milestone very soon - actually in just a few days at the end of this month according to many sources. The figures are of course somewhat inexact, but there's no denying that the world population has been growing at an incredible rate - it has after all more than doubled in the last 50 years. How about the future - what will happen in the next 50 years and in the time after that?

Only one thing is for sure: population growth cannot continue forever. At some point the population has to reach its peak. It may be interesting to evaluate or prophesy what the maximum figure will be, but I think there is one question that is more interesting or at least more important: how will this peak be reached? Will it be a bubble that bursts violently through a crisis initiated by a combination of ecological disasters, shortage of sustainable energy, ravaging famine and social problems or perhaps even something totally unprecedented, resulting in a dramatic decline in population? Or will the growth rate just steadily slow down to a point of stabilization? Of course there is also a third question that perhaps isn't really asked that often: will the anticipated peak be the permanent population maximum, or will it be superseded by a new peak after a temporary slump?

In any case, many people seem to think that the point of the (next) population peak will inevitably be a dramatic event. As of now, no-one really knows what it will be like, but the fact is that the relative population growth rate has already been declining for many years. As the standard of living and life expectancy increase, family sizes decline, which can be easily seen for example from the incredibly illustrative statistics service called Gapminder. The service shows each country plotted on a graph in a fashion that's essentially 4-dimensional, and you get to determine the variables for the axes yourself. For the same message you can alternatively check Hans Rosling, the man behind gapminder speak about population growth in the video below (If you don't want to check the entire video, you may want to skip straight to watch the minute from 7:00 to 8:00).



Contrary to Rosling's words, some might see him as an optimist. If he is, then I'm probably one too. Whatever challenges population growth may present, mankind has the ability to adapt. I believe the population peak won't be reached before the round figure of 10 billion people, but when it will, it may very well be an undramatic event.


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2010-04-18

Expo 2010 - roadmap to a Chinese future

Haibao, the Expo 2010 mascot (Wikimedia Commons)

The next world's fair, Expo 2010, will be held in Shanghai, China. It will begin in less than two weeks, starting on May 1st and continuing till the end of October. The area of the Expo will be the largest in the history of world's fairs and it is also expected to reach the largest visitor count in history - a goal I believe it will easily achieve. I also believe it will do more, by exceeding its goal of getting 70 million visitors. However, it can be seen as more than just a hugely popular event.

So far, due to its huge size, China has been a prime example of a country to which western corporations have moved their manufacturing in order to save money in labour costs. This, sometimes referred to as the "China phenomenon", has been a significant factor in China's economic rise and has pushed China towards a more consumerist lifestyle - especially amidst the younger generations. In addition to being a growing market and a place for manufacturing, an emerging trend in the upcoming years will be the increasing amount of also white-collar work moving to China. One factor supporting this is the increasing amount of Chinese with a sufficient knowledge of English or other foreign languages. This in turn will further strengthen the Chinese influence over the world.

All of this has made the Chinese economy growing at a very rapid annual rate of about 10% during the past few decades. It is almost inevitable that it will, at some point, surpass the U.S. as the biggest economy on the planet. It may be unlikely that it would happen as soon as during this decade, but even so, it probably will happen during the 2020's. As a consequence not only is the Expo 2010 a huge event, but it can be seen as a sign of what is to come. Just like the expo held in Shanghai will most likely be the biggest of its kind so far, so will China very likely soon be the most powerful country in the world - at least in the economic sense. Therefore, when looked from the late 21st century, this year's Expo might be regarded as a harbinger of a new era.

Shanghai (Wikimedia Commons)
What kind of consequences this power shift to the east will have remains to be seen. It is to be hoped for that issues related to human rights, corruption and freedom of speech will be improved by the time China reaches the status of the biggest economy in the world. At that point the importance of China as a market will be bigger than ever, and this will most certainly affect the way China views the rest of the world. As staying in China will become even more important to most multinational corporations, China has little need to specifically persuade any company or to try to please western organizations. Thus, the drive for change has to come from China itself.


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2010-03-20

Life in a complete world

We are living in a constantly changing world. Technological progress is continuously changing our every day lives, world population is still strongly growing, fossil fuels are being depleted, the power balance between countries is changing, countries split, international collaborative organizations are established and expanded, demographics are changing due to immigration among other things, man is shaping nature and environment, languages die and globalization unifies cultures.

What if we would live in a world, where all this was no longer true? Technological progress would have practically reached its peak. Population growth would have stopped and would be controlled for example through jurisdiction if needed. The social structure of the population and the possibly still existing countries would have been stabilized. Fossil fuels would have long ago been completely or almost completely replaced by alternative energy sources, and the human relation with nature would also otherwise be in balance. Real economic growth would have stopped and the division of wealth would be stabilized. Everyone on earth would either have the same mother tongue or at least the amount of languages and their power relationship would not change.

None of these are close, but the idea is not impossible in the very long run. It may also be that the pace of change is currently at its highest, and in the upcoming decades life will change slower. At least so far the most rapid technological revolution in the entire history might have been the way mobile phones and internet have conquered the world during the last two decades. In practice, we are currently just adapting to the effects of this revolution – both on individual and societal levels.

A 16th century view of a Golden Era

Then what would it be like to live in a truly complete world? The world would probably be, if not entirely equal, a lot more equal than it is today. There would be no war-torn countries nor significant violent conflicts between cultures. In addition to an abolished global inequality, there would also be no inequality between generations: no real economic growth and no new technologies or technological applications would emerge to make life easier. There would also be very little if any reason to fear population growth, global warming, great wars or technological progress potentially going too far.

Apart from the positive factors like equality and safety, also downsides can be seen. From the perspective of the contemporary man a future without linguistic or cultural diversity might seem like a depressing scenario. On the other hand would one be able to miss something that one has never experienced? Some probably would miss, but most perhaps would not – at least not on a substantial or conscious level.

How about what life in general would feel like, if the world would have been approximately the same for centuries, and there would be no reason to assume that the following centuries would in any way differ from this? Would it result in a lack of objective and healthy ambition? In science there would be no new discoveries to be found. No industry or profession would be facing any kinds of changes. Of course this would result in a general feeling of safety, but perhaps also a feeling of purposelessness. No new ideas would be brought up in any area of life – not in technology, literature, art, pastime nor in social relations.

Also in the entertainment culture practically everything would have been experienced. In movies and games or their future equivalents all the stories and phenomena would have been seen. Since similar entertainment - both technologically and in terms of content - would have been produced for centuries and all the old production would be easily available, entertainment consumption would most likely be far more fragmented than it is today. Both in entertainment and in fashion there could of course be short-term variation, but in practice everything would be repetition of something old. Everything would have been already experienced. But although we would have reached our final goal as a race, there still might be space for individual dreams and goals.

Tokyo, March 2009

A lot of people may consider a utopia like this rather impossible. Maybe it is, maybe not, which is of course largely dependent on how tightly the term “complete” is defined in this context. In any case, in spite of its perks, the state of goallessness, that is an inherent part of a complete world, might not be entirely worth striving for – although there would perhaps be even less sense in trying to purposefully avoid it. Either way, the current speed of change and progress does not always feel right to the human nature. The older one gets, the more exhausting the surrounding invisible turmoil may feel.

For the time being the train of progress is continuing its journey at high speed. Each of us may decide for oneself, how perseveringly one is willing to chase it.



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